Identify the deception technique in each scenario. Write: Cherry-Picking / Survivorship Bias / Framing Effect / Simpson's Paradox
| Scenario | Technique |
|---|---|
| "Our new exercise program works! We have 50 success stories to prove it." (The 200 people who quit early are not mentioned.) | |
| "Our toothpaste is 97% cavity-free!" vs. "3% of users still developed cavities." | |
| "Our school improved! Overall test scores went from 55% to 60%." But scores for both high-achieving AND low-achieving students both went down by 5%. | |
| A company shows a bar graph of quarterly profits — only showing Q1 and Q4 (their two best quarters). | |
| "All the famous musicians practiced 10,000 hours. So practicing 10,000 hours will make you famous!" |
Study this data about two reading programs at Lincoln School:
| Student Group | Program X pass rate | Program Y pass rate |
|---|---|---|
| Grade 4 students | 80% (40 out of 50) | 75% (15 out of 20) |
| Grade 5 students | 60% (12 out of 20) | 50% (25 out of 50) |
| Overall combined | 74% (52/70) | 57% (40/70) |
Answer these questions:
1. For Grade 4 students, which program is better? _______________
2. For Grade 5 students, which program is better? _______________
3. Looking at the overall combined rate, which program appears better? _______________
4. Is this an example of Simpson's Paradox? Circle: YES / NO
5. Explain in 2–3 sentences why the combined number can be misleading here:
6. If you were advising the school principal, which program would you recommend — and why?
For each case: identify the technique, find the flaw, and write a "detective question" that exposes it.
The city changed how they count crime this year, excluding minor incidents that were previously included. The absolute number of serious crimes stayed the same.
Technique used: _______________________
The flaw:
My detective question:
Honest restatement:
The data comes from a survey of top-performing students. Students who struggled and did homework but still got poor grades were not included in the analysis.
Technique used: _______________________
The flaw:
My detective question:
Honest restatement:
A competing pharmaceutical company advertises their drug instead: "Our medication is safe for 95% of patients!" Both statistics refer to the same risk level (5%).
Technique used: _______________________
Explain why the framing creates different impressions even though the data is identical:
My detective question:
Player A has a higher batting average than Player B against both left-handed pitchers AND right-handed pitchers. But Player B has a higher overall batting average for the season. Explain how this is possible and what it means for who is actually the better batter.
Technique at work: _______________________
Explanation:
Who is actually the better batter, and why?
Which deception technique was hardest to spot — and why? What question would you ask to catch it in the future?
Think of one real-world situation where these tricks could cause serious harm (not just confusion). Describe it.
Find one real advertisement, news headline, or statistic that uses one of today's deception techniques.
My honest restatement of the claim I found: