Lesson 4: Cause and Effect Detective

About 30 minutes — Activity-based lesson

What You Will Learn

This lesson covers:

Three categories: causation (one really causes the other), correlation (they happen together but a third thing may cause both), coincidence (random)
How to evaluate a claim: look for mechanism, third variables, and evidence
Practice: classify 10 claims as causation, correlation, or coincidence
Take-home: find a news headline confusing correlation and causation

Three categories: causation (one really causes the other), correlation (they happen together but a third thing may cause both), coincidence (random)

This section covers the key ideas about three categories: causation (one really causes the other), correlation (they happen together but a third thing may cause both), coincidence (random). Discuss with your group or family and explore the concepts together.

How to evaluate a claim: look for mechanism, third variables, and evidence

This section covers the key ideas about how to evaluate a claim: look for mechanism, third variables, and evidence. Discuss with your group or family and explore the concepts together.

Practice: classify 10 claims as causation, correlation, or coincidence

This section covers the key ideas about practice: classify 10 claims as causation, correlation, or coincidence. Discuss with your group or family and explore the concepts together.

Take-home: find a news headline confusing correlation and causation

This section covers the key ideas about take-home: find a news headline confusing correlation and causation. Discuss with your group or family and explore the concepts together.

Check Your Understanding

1. How do you classify a claim as causation vs. correlation?

Answer: Ask: (1) Is there a logical mechanism? (2) Could a third variable explain both? (3) Has it been tested with an experiment? If all three point to causation, it probably is. Otherwise, it is likely just correlation.

2. What should you do when a headline says 'X causes Y'?

Answer: Ask: How do they know? Was it an experiment or just an observation? Could something else explain both? What is the sample size?

3. Is correlation useless?

Answer: No! Correlation is very useful for spotting patterns and generating questions. It just cannot prove causation on its own. Correlation says 'look here,' and experiments say 'this is why.'

4. What is the most important phrase from this session?

Answer: 'Correlation is not causation.' Two things happening together does not prove one causes the other. Always look deeper.

Key Takeaways

Three categories: causation (one really causes the other), correlation (they happen together but a third thing may cause both), coincidence (random)
How to evaluate a claim: look for mechanism, third variables, and evidence
Practice: classify 10 claims as causation, correlation, or coincidence
Take-home: find a news headline confusing correlation and causation

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Practice & Quiz

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Practice Activities

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