Session 3: Experimental vs. Theoretical Probability
Why does flipping a coin 10 times not always give 5 heads? Learn the difference between what should happen and what does happen.
Your Progress
Learning Objectives
By the end of this session, you will be able to:
- Distinguish between theoretical and experimental probability
- Conduct probability experiments and record results
- Understand the law of large numbers
- Explain why small samples produce unreliable results
Why This Matters
Theory tells you what should happen. Experiments show what actually happens. Understanding the gap between them is one of the most important ideas in all of data science.
Session Lessons
What Should Happen: Theoretical Probability
Calculate what should happen based on math alone — before running any experiment.
~30 minutes Discussion
What Actually Happens: Experimental Probability
Run experiments and see how results compare to theoretical predictions.
~30 minutes Activity
The Law of Large Numbers
The more you repeat an experiment, the closer results get to the theoretical prediction. This is one of the most powerful ideas in probability.
~30 minutes Activity
Why Small Samples Fool Us
Small groups of data can show dramatic patterns that disappear with more data. Learn why this matters for real-world decisions.
~30 minutes Discussion